Analysts Predict Grand Theft Auto VI Could Sell 45-46 Million Copies on Launch Day

Investment bank Piper Sandler has released a detailed analysis predicting that Grand Theft Auto VI could achieve unprecedented first-day sales of 45-46 million copies, setting a new record for the entertainment industry. The forecast is based on an unconventional methodology that analyzes Reddit community engagement, specifically tracking activity on the r/GTA6 subreddit and comparing it against historical data from major game releases over the past eight years.

The analysis employs two complementary models to reach its conclusion. The first model assumes that the r/GTA6 subreddit's weekly unique visitors will grow from approximately 870,000 to 1.3 million by the game's launch, using a historical correlation coefficient of 35x between Reddit traffic and initial sales. The second model applies the current subreddit traffic of 870,000 weekly users with a median coefficient of 53x. Both approaches yield nearly identical results of approximately 46 million copies sold. Piper Sandler noted that the projected 49 percent increase in subreddit traffic is conservative compared to historical trends, where comparable major releases averaged a 71 percent increase in Reddit engagement before launch.

The analysis examined correlation coefficients across multiple high-profile releases, revealing considerable variation. Red Dead Redemption 2 and The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt demonstrated exceptionally high correlations of 150x and above, while Starfield and Marvel's Spider-Man 2 showed lower coefficients around 9x and 13x respectively. The prediction had a positive market impact, with Take-Two Interactive shares rising following the report's release.

However, industry observers have raised important limitations to the forecast. The primary constraint may be the total addressable market of PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S console owners. Current console install bases are smaller than they were at the launch of Grand Theft Auto V in 2013, and hardware sales have slowed due to rising console prices. For the Piper Sandler prediction to materialize, approximately one in three current-generation console owners would need to purchase Grand Theft Auto VI on day one. For context, Grand Theft Auto V achieved 13 million first-day sales when it launched in 2013. Grand Theft Auto VI is scheduled to release on November 19, 2026.