OpenAI Delays IPO to 2027 as Market Volatility and SpaceX Underperformance Reshape AI Stock Outlook

OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, is postponing its initial public offering to 2027, according to multiple sources citing people involved in the company's internal deliberations. The delay represents a significant shift in strategy for the artificial intelligence giant, which had previously targeted a public offering in the third or fourth quarter of 2026. Chief Executive Sam Altman had pushed advisers to achieve a $1 trillion valuation, up from the company's last private valuation of $730 billion. However, recent market developments have prompted a strategic reassessment.

The primary driver of the delay is the volatile performance of SpaceX's stock following its June 12, 2026 IPO. Despite launching at a $1.77 trillion valuation and raising over $85 billion—the largest IPO ever—SpaceX's shares have declined sharply, falling to $153 by late June after reaching a high of $202. This underperformance has raised questions about whether the public markets will accept the premium valuations that private investors assign to high-growth technology companies. OpenAI's financial advisers have warned that retail investors may lack enthusiasm for the company's shares at current valuation targets, particularly given broader weakness in technology stocks and investor skepticism about whether AI companies can deliver on their growth promises.

OpenAI's advisers have presented the company with two options: wait until 2027 to pursue the $1 trillion valuation, or reduce its target valuation to accelerate the IPO timeline. The company's CFO Sarah Friar previously indicated the company was focused on consolidating its financial position, with no immediate IPO timeline. OpenAI has filed confidential paperwork with securities regulators to initiate the public offering process, but has not publicly committed to any specific timeline. The delay has significant implications for major stakeholders, particularly SoftBank, which holds over 10% of OpenAI and has committed up to $30 billion in additional funding. SoftBank's stock fell 12.39% on the news, as investors reassessed the timeline and prospects for liquidity on their AI investments.

The broader context reflects a fundamental tension between private and public market valuations. The first quarter markets have enthusiastically funded AI companies at historically high multiples, betting on long-term technological dominance translating to commercial advantage. However, the public markets operate on a different framework, demanding evidence of sustainable revenue growth, improving profit margins, capital efficiency, and a clear path to positive free cash flow. OpenAI's financial position remains challenged—the company is not yet profitable, faces intense competition, is investing heavily in data center infrastructure, and is allocating significant resources to marketing and revenue diversification. The delay signals that while one-time valuations may exceed $1 trillion in private funding rounds, achieving such valuations through public offerings faces material headwinds.

The IPO postponement carries implications beyond OpenAI. Rival AI company Anthropic, which has also initiated IPO preparations, may face similar market pressures. The episode underscores that the AI industry's near-term narrative has shifted from pure capability leadership to demonstrable commercial viability and financial sustainability. For global AI companies preparing for public markets, particularly those in China with lower absolute valuations but similar commercialization challenges, the lesson is clear: first-mover advantage in going public no longer guarantees reception, and market conditions now demand proof of business model durability before capital markets will validate extraordinary valuations.