US midterms 2026: Democrats lead Senate races; House toss-up

Americans voted on November 3, 2026, in midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. All 435 House seats and 35 of 100 Senate seats were contested. Pre-election polls conducted by the New York Times, CNN, and others predicted a significant Democratic advantage in House races and a competitive Senate battle, with Republicans currently holding 53 of 100 Senate seats.

Polls identified seven states as pivotal for Senate control: Michigan, Kansas, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a 40-year-old epidemiologist and son of Egyptian immigrants, was shown leading Republican Mike Rogers by margins ranging from 7 to 11 percentage points across different surveys. In Texas, a longtime Republican stronghold that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, Democrat James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, was polled at 50% against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton's 43%. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton was shown at 49% against incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall at 44%—a result that could mark the state's first Democratic Senate election since 1932. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican Senator Susan Collins 51% to 45%, and in Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown was at 49% against Republican Senator Jon Husted at 44%.

Poll aggregators noted that the Democratic advantage, if borne out, would represent an unusually strong midterm showing for the party holding the presidency. Trump's approval rating stood at approximately 35%—lower than Harry Truman's during his 1946 midterms, historically the weakest midterm position for a sitting president. The New York Times acknowledged uncertainty in polling, noting that Trump supporters tend to respond at lower rates to surveys, creating potential for polling error. The Times stated: "Supporters of President Trump are tendentially reluctant to respond to surveys, which therefore introduces the constant risk of a miscalculation error."

Key Senate races also included competitive contests in Georgia, where incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff was considered the frontrunner, and Iowa and Alaska, described as toss-ups. In the House, polls predicted Democratic gains but did not specify whether Democrats would win an outright majority.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton commented on the potential outcome, stating that a Democratic win in both chambers would likely provoke a strong reaction from Trump. "If we manage to win both the House and the Senate—which I hope—then I think Trump will spiral even further out of control," Clinton said on "The View." "He will feel cornered. I think he will go crazy."

The stakes for Trump personally were significant: a president who loses congressional majorities in a second term is traditionally termed a "lame duck" with diminished legislative authority, as occurred with Ronald Reagan in 1986, George W. Bush in 2006, and Barack Obama in 2014.