EU Prepares Tougher China Trade Strategy, France Leads Hardline Push

European Union leaders are set to convene in Brussels on June 18-19 to discuss what officials describe as "global macroeconomic imbalances and their impact on European competitiveness and prosperity." While the EU has avoided explicitly naming China in official statements, multiple international media outlets have revealed that China is the primary target of the discussions.

The EU is reportedly preparing a comprehensive package of new trade restrictions on China, expanding both traditional protectionist tools such as tariffs and quotas, as well as considering an "EU version 301" mechanism modeled after the US Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act. This approach aims to address what Brussels characterizes as Chinese "overcapacity" and "unfair competition." According to EU officials, the European Commission is expected to unveil an industrial policy blueprint on June 18 that includes emergency safeguard tariffs and quotas for sectors experiencing surging imports, such as chemicals and machinery.

However, significant divisions have emerged within the EU over how aggressively to pursue these measures. France, led by President Emmanuel Macron, is the most vocal advocate for aggressive trade measures against China. By contrast, Germany and Spain express concern that a trade conflict with China could backfire on European economic interests. Ding Chun, director of Fudan University's Center for European Studies, notes that while the EU will likely address unfair competition, overcapacity, and market access imbalances as primary agenda items, internal differences over policy intensity and consistency could prove decisive.

Macron's strategy reflects multiple considerations. While pushing for stricter EU trade defenses, he simultaneously invited China to participate in the G7 summit, signaling France's strategic autonomy and desire to represent a distinct European voice. However, broader structural forces are driving the EU's harder stance. Chinese competitors have advanced significantly in electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels, and increasingly artificial intelligence, while European manufacturing has weakened due to slow post-crisis growth and competition from US investment policies like the Inflation Reduction Act. This combination has intensified European anxiety about industrial "hollowing out."

The EU's internal landscape reveals competing interests. While France leads the hardline faction, backed by the Netherlands, Italy, and Belgium, Spain maintains opposition to confrontational trade measures, arguing such actions could harm European economies. The European People's Party in the European Parliament openly supports a tougher China strategy, with its leader Manfred Weber calling for an "economic NATO" with the United States. Yet agreement between France and Germany, the EU's two largest economies, remains uncertain—a prerequisite for unified strategy implementation.