Emerging
Jun 18, 20261
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LPA Outside PAR Has Even Chance to Develop into Tropical Depression

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) reported that a low pressure area outside the Philippine area of responsibility has an even chance of becoming a tropical depression within 24 hours. The system is located about 2,430 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas and could intensify into a tropical cyclone while still outside PAR, with a low likelihood of landfall but potential to enhance the southwest monsoon.


Quick Facts
Who
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa)
What
low pressure area may develop into tropical depression
When
within next 24 hours
Where
outside Philippine area of responsibility (PAR)
- low pressure area may develop into tropical depression
- LPA could intensify into tropical cyclone outside PAR
- possible entry into PAR over weekend
- potential enhancement of southwest monsoon
- Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa)
A low pressure area (LPA) located outside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) has an even chance of intensifying into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa). The weather system is currently positioned approximately 2,430 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas and may strengthen into a tropical cyclone while still outside Philippine territory. Pagasa weather specialist Leanne Loreto confirmed that the LPA is not directly affecting any part of the Philippines at present. If the system develops into a tropical cyclone and enters PAR over the weekend, it will be assigned the local name “Francisco.” However, Loreto noted that it is unlikely to make landfall in the country. Should the disturbance enter PAR, it could enhance the southwest monsoon, locally known as “habagat,” by Sunday or Monday, potentially bringing increased rainfall to some areas. Meanwhile, the easterlies are expected to bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms across Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and the eastern section of Mindanao. Loreto indicated that hot and humid conditions will prevail in many parts of the country, although isolated rain showers remain possible. Metro Manila and the rest of the country may also experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, primarily due to localized thunderstorms. “Even during the rainy season, we can still experience hot weather because of the monsoon break,” Loreto explained. No gale warning is in effect, and coastal waters nationwide are expected to remain slight to moderate.
Why This Matters
This advisory matters because the LPA could enhance the southwest monsoon, leading to increased rainfall in parts of the Philippines as early as Sunday or Monday. Although landfall is unlikely, the potential for monsoon-driven showers and thunderstorms may affect travel plans, outdoor activities, and agriculture in affected regions, including Metro Manila, Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and eastern Mindanao. People should monitor updates and prepare for isolated but possibly heavy rain.
Timeline & Sources
Jun 18, 2026
WireLPA located 2,430 km east of Eastern Visayas
Jun 18, 2026
WirePagasa issues bulletin on LPA outside PAR with even chance of tropical depression development within 24 hours