Three Major Obstacles Remain to Reopening the Strait of Hormuz After US-Iran Agreement

Despite US President Donald Trump's announcement on June 14 of an agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical shipping routes remains largely blocked. Trump declared on Truth Social that "the world's ships" should "start your engines" and "let the oil flow," yet BBC Verify's analysis of MarineTraffic vessel tracking data shows that only seven ships have transited the waterway since the agreement was announced, while approximately 580 vessels remain waiting in the Persian Gulf region.

The standoff reflects the persistence of three major barriers to normalizing traffic through the strait, which typically carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and natural gas shipments. First, security concerns persist despite the ceasefire declaration. Since Iran effectively closed the strait on February 28 following US and Israeli airstrikes, it has fired on vessels attempting transit without permission. The United States imposed its own naval blockade on April 13, disabling nine "non-compliant vessels" using Hellfire missiles among other means. Although Trump announced the immediate lifting of the US blockade, satellite imagery from June 15 showed four American warships remained deployed near the entrance to the Gulf of Oman. Shipping analysts note a pervasive "wait-and-see mentality" among captains and vessel owners, with many remembering April when Iran briefly claimed to have fully opened the strait, only to reverse course within 24 hours, forcing 33 ships to turn back and resulting in reported cannon fire incidents.

Second, mine clearance represents a critical bottleneck. Iran threatened to deploy various types of mines, including floating mines, if its coastline or islands were attacked. Both the Joint Maritime Information Center and Oman Maritime Security Centre subsequently reported suspicious floating objects consistent with mines, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed Congress that Iran had laid mines across large areas of the strait. International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez stated that mine clearance is an essential first step toward restoring pre-conflict traffic levels. Expert estimates suggest the process could take 30 days to six months, with sweeping operations potentially requiring vessels to move at only two to three knots (4-6 kilometers per hour) for underwater reconnaissance. Britain and France have deployed naval vessels to support potential minesweeping operations, with the UK's RFA Lyme Bay, equipped with mine clearance equipment, already identified near RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus. British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer pledged on Tuesday that the UK would "fully engage" to reopen the strait as quickly as possible.

Third, unresolved questions about transit fees complicate commercial operations. Historically, ships have transited the strait freely, as both the United States and Iran remain non-signatories to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, though the US maintains that free passage is established in customary international law. During the current conflict, Iran sought to assert greater sovereignty by establishing the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and claiming responsibility for "safe passage permits." Trump asserted that the strait would reopen "free of charge," but Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported that the new agreement could result in joint Iran-Oman management involving potential "service fees" for transiting vessels—details that remain unclear. Kpler's senior petroleum analyst Naveen Das noted that critical questions persist: "Who will enforce it? How will it be enforced? How will fees be collected? What do other Gulf states think?" While the June 19 agreement signing may provide further clarity, experts believe Tehran is unlikely to permit the unrestricted passage that existed before the conflict.