OPEC+ to expand oil supply by 14 million bpd by 2050, capturing growing global demand

OPEC+ countries plan to increase oil supply by nearly 14 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2050, reaching 64.5 million bpd from current levels, according to the OPEC World Oil Outlook released in June 2026. This expansion will boost OPEC+'s share of global oil supply from 48% in 2025 to 52% by 2050, positioning the cartel to capture a larger share of the world market as overall demand rises.

The supply increase reflects broader shifts in global energy consumption patterns. OPEC forecasts that global oil demand will grow by 19 million bpd by 2050, reaching 124.1 million bpd compared to 2025 levels. This growth is expected to be concentrated in developing regions, with India leading the expansion at 8.1 million bpd of additional demand. Other Asian countries, the Middle East, and Africa collectively will account for approximately 22.4 million bpd of total demand growth, while OECD nations are expected to see demand decline by 7.9 million bpd.

China presents a more complex picture, with OPEC projecting only modest growth of 1.1 million bpd by 2050. Most of this increase will occur in the medium term through 2035, after which demand is forecast to decline. This contrasts with the strong expansion expected in India and other developing economies.

Non-OPEC+ countries are also expected to boost production, with supply projected to grow by approximately 4 million bpd by 2030, reaching 58.2 million bpd. However, non-OPEC+ supply is forecast to stabilize around 60 million bpd in the 2030s. OPEC noted that Canada and Argentina will be exceptions, with both countries expected to continue supply growth even after 2030.

By 2030, OPEC+ supply is projected to reach 55.3 million bpd, representing an increase of 4.7 million bpd compared to 2025 levels. These projections suggest that OPEC+ will play a dominant role in meeting the world's growing energy needs, particularly in emerging markets.