Science
Jun 17, 20261
59%
USP project opens World Cup simulator to teach statistics
Researchers from USP, UFBA and partner institutions have made public an interactive World Cup simulator that uses statistical models to estimate tournament outcomes. The project is intended for education and scientific outreach, allowing users to change variables and see how probabilities shift.
The site also includes 2026 World Cup forecasts and matchup estimates based on large-scale simulations, with Spain and France shown as early title favorites in the model.
Quick Facts
Who
University of São Paulo (USP)
What
opened a World Cup simulation algorithm to the public
When
since the 2010 World Cup
Where
São Paulo, Brazil
- opened a World Cup simulation algorithm to the public
- uses statistical and Bayesian models to estimate tournament outcomes
- lets users change variables, weights, selections and criteria
- published 2026 World Cup probability forecasts on the project website
- ran one million simulations to generate predictions
Researchers linked to the University of São Paulo (USP), the Federal University of Bahia (UFBA) and other academic institutions have expanded their long-running Previsão Esportiva project by opening its World Cup simulation tool to the public. The platform uses statistical models to estimate how national teams may progress through the tournament and to show how different assumptions affect the probabilities.
The project, which dates back to the 2010 World Cup, is designed as a scientific outreach effort focused on probabilistic analysis of football rather than on gambling. Users can now run their own simulations, change the weight of variables, adjust team selections and criteria, and watch the results update in real time.
In addition to the interactive simulator, the website offers prediction modules for the 2026 World Cup, including probabilities for teams advancing from the group stage, title chances and first-round matchup estimates. The researchers say they ran one million simulations before the tournament began to build the model’s forecasts.
According to the project’s published estimates, Spain and France lead the title race, with England, Portugal, Brazil and Argentina also among the main contenders. The team says the platform is meant to help students and the public understand statistics and probability in a practical setting, turning World Cup forecasting into a learning tool.
Why This Matters
This matters because it turns a high-interest sports event into a hands-on statistics lesson: students, teachers, and curious readers can test assumptions, see how probability shifts, and better understand model uncertainty. It also provides a practical example of how data-driven forecasting works, which can help readers interpret sports predictions more critically and apply the same reasoning to other probabilistic decisions.
Timeline & Sources
Jan 1, 2010
WireThe Previsão Esportiva project begins using statistical models to estimate World Cup results.
Jun 11, 2026
WireThe 2026 World Cup begins.
Jun 17, 2026
WireJornal da USP publishes details about the public launch of the interactive simulator.