US Intelligence Warns Iran Now Has Ability to Shut Down Strait of Hormuz at Will

US intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran has acquired the capability to effectively shut down access to the Strait of Hormuz at will, representing a significant strategic shift resulting from recent conflict in the region. The assessment indicates that Iran demonstrated this capacity during the current war and retains the ability to do so again, fundamentally altering the geopolitical balance around one of the world's most critical shipping chokepoints. One US official characterized the situation by stating Iran has been handed "de facto control over the strait – a weapon more powerful than any nuke," highlighting the grave implications for global energy security.

A framework agreement scheduled for formal signing is intended to reopen the waterway as a precursor to nuclear negotiations. However, US officials have emphasized that Iran cannot access any benefits from this agreement unless it maintains open transit and complies with other agreed terms. The US has indicated it will gradually wind down its blockade proportionally as Iran restores traffic flow, maintaining leverage throughout the process. Intensive negotiations between the two sides underscore Iran's continued strategic advantage in controlling this vital passage through which approximately one-third of global maritime oil trade transits.

Iran's newfound leverage stems from multiple asymmetric capabilities it has developed and tested during the conflict. These include a substantial remaining weapons stockpile comprising missiles, drones, launcher systems, and hundreds of fast-attack boats capable of harassing commercial shipping and laying mines. Intelligence assessments note that Iran has also accelerated rebuilding its military industrial base faster than initially anticipated, including resuming drone production. Additionally, Iran demonstrated it can conduct targeted strikes against Gulf energy infrastructure, adding another tool to its asymmetric arsenal.

Shipping industry officials and experts tracking vessel movements warn that uncertainty surrounding the agreement and ongoing risks will likely keep traffic through the strait severely restricted for weeks or months. While discussions have occurred regarding the possibility of allies policing the strait once reopened, implementation details remain unclear. Intelligence sources note that any Iranian attempt to close the strait in the future would generate self-inflicted consequences, particularly from China and Gulf countries that depend on unimpeded energy flows.

US officials have also reported that Iran is considering an economic "nuclear option" should negotiations collapse: leveraging its Houthi proxy force in Yemen to close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean and serves as an alternative shipping lifeline. The recent assessments underscore the broader strategic consequences of decisions that have left Iran with multiple tools to weaponize global trade, raising enduring questions about Tehran's future leverage over the international economy.