Netanyahu's gamble faces defeat: strained US ties and political crisis loom

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is confronting a severe political crisis following the joint US-Israel military strikes on Iran, according to analysts. The campaign's core objective—regime change in Tehran—has failed, while relations with the United States have deteriorated and domestic support has eroded.

The Financial Times reported on June 21 that Israel's expectations of triggering a collapse of the Iranian government have effectively collapsed. Earlier this year, Israel assessed that anti-government protests in Iran could lead to regime change and launched military action. However, analysts note that the Iranian government has not fallen; instead, external threats have strengthened internal cohesion.

Former US Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro criticized the strategy, stating, "President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu were too greedy. They misjudged what they could actually achieve." Skepticism over the war's outcomes is rising in Israel. A Channel 12 poll found that only 11% of respondents believe Israel "won" the conflict, and just 13% trust that President Trump will actively protect Israeli interests going forward.

Netanyahu's political position is becoming precarious ahead of the October general election. His Likud party and right-wing coalition may not secure a majority in parliament, according to observers. Israeli political strategist Nadav Strauhler told the Financial Times that "the US-Iran ceasefire agreement is a major political blow to Netanyahu. If elections were held now, the result would be very harsh."

Netanyahu's relationship with his once-strongest ally, President Trump, has also frayed. Trump, seeking reduced Middle East involvement and a swift end to hostilities, has clashed with Netanyahu's push for continued military pressure. In a recent interview, Trump stated that Netanyahu "has no decision-making power," and earlier this month he reportedly expressed strong dissatisfaction in a direct phone call.

With domestic political pressure and US demands for a ceasefire intensifying simultaneously, analysts say Netanyahu's options are severely limited. Some observers suggest Netanyahu may hope for a collapse of US-Iran follow-up negotiations or a renewed security crisis to reverse his fortunes. Likud's Culture and Sports Minister Miki Zohar hinted in a recent interview that "President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu will deliver a surprising news before the October general election," signaling possible shifts in Iran policy. Experts warn that if the expected diplomatic and security gains from the war do not materialize, Netanyahu's political standing will weaken further.