Latvian intelligence warns Russia preparing hybrid attacks on NATO's eastern flank

Latvian intelligence has warned that Russia is preparing hybrid attacks, including drone strikes and missile launches, against the Baltic states and Poland in an effort to pressure NATO countries to reduce support for Ukraine. Intelligence officials told Fox News Digital on June 22, 2026, that while Russia is not currently capable of a full-scale conventional war, it is planning provocations designed to send a clear message: stop supporting Ukraine, or face domestic consequences. The warning highlights growing concerns about Russian activity along NATO's eastern flank, with Polish officials stating that a hybrid war is already underway. Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Bosacki pointed to documented assassinations, drone operations, cyberattacks, and strikes on critical infrastructure on NATO territory, including a Russian-instigated cyberattack aimed at blacking out parts of Poland. Ambassador Krzysztof Olendzki also described the Belarus border as part of a Russian and Belarusian campaign to weaponize illegal migration against NATO countries.

Latvian intelligence further assessed that the greatest risk is not an imminent full-scale war but a potential miscalculation by Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to intelligence officials, Russian institutions are feeding Putin a distorted version of reality, creating a dangerous decision-making environment. "The biggest concern is miscalculation. Russian institutions are telling Putin what he wants to hear, and that creates a dangerous cycle that can lead to foolish and senseless decisions," Latvian intelligence said. The Baltic states and Poland are NATO allies, meaning any Russian provocation could test America's treaty commitments and risk a broader confrontation.

The Latvian Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) released a public report detailing how Russia is intensifying "lawfare" against the West—using courts, legal claims, and international institutions to pressure Western governments, weaken support for Ukraine, and create justification for more aggressive actions. The report notes that Russian experts have analyzed Iran's 2016 case against the United States at the International Court of Justice and are looking for ways to adapt similar tactics. Additionally, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law in late May granting him authority to use military force to protect Russian citizens abroad, a step previously taken before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite these moves, Latvian intelligence stated that Latvia does not currently face a threat of full-scale invasion, estimating that even if the war in Ukraine ended today, Russia would need three to five years to rebuild sufficient military capability. The immediate concern remains provocations involving drones, missiles, and other hybrid attacks.