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Jun 22, 2026 Major2
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Latvian intelligence warns Russia preparing hybrid attacks on NATO's eastern flank
Latvian intelligence warns that Russia is preparing hybrid attacks, including drones and missiles, against NATO's eastern flank to pressure member states to cease support for Ukraine. Polish officials confirm a hybrid war is already underway with cyberattacks, assassinations, and infrastructure strikes. Intelligence officials also caution that Putin's isolation and distorted information environment raise the risk of miscalculation.


Quick Facts
Who
Latvian intelligence
What
Russia preparing hybrid attacks against Baltic states and Poland
When
June 22, 2026
Where
Latvia
- Russia preparing hybrid attacks against Baltic states and Poland
- Intelligence warning of provocations to pressure NATO on Ukraine
- Polish officials describing hybrid war as underway
- Russia intensifying lawfare against the West
- Putin signing law to protect Russian citizens abroad
Latvian intelligence has warned that Russia is preparing hybrid attacks, including drone strikes and missile launches, against the Baltic states and Poland in an effort to pressure NATO countries to reduce support for Ukraine. Intelligence officials told Fox News Digital on June 22, 2026, that while Russia is not currently capable of a full-scale conventional war, it is planning provocations designed to send a clear message: stop supporting Ukraine, or face domestic consequences. The warning highlights growing concerns about Russian activity along NATO's eastern flank, with Polish officials stating that a hybrid war is already underway. Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Bosacki pointed to documented assassinations, drone operations, cyberattacks, and strikes on critical infrastructure on NATO territory, including a Russian-instigated cyberattack aimed at blacking out parts of Poland. Ambassador Krzysztof Olendzki also described the Belarus border as part of a Russian and Belarusian campaign to weaponize illegal migration against NATO countries.
Latvian intelligence further assessed that the greatest risk is not an imminent full-scale war but a potential miscalculation by Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to intelligence officials, Russian institutions are feeding Putin a distorted version of reality, creating a dangerous decision-making environment. "The biggest concern is miscalculation. Russian institutions are telling Putin what he wants to hear, and that creates a dangerous cycle that can lead to foolish and senseless decisions," Latvian intelligence said. The Baltic states and Poland are NATO allies, meaning any Russian provocation could test America's treaty commitments and risk a broader confrontation.
The Latvian Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) released a public report detailing how Russia is intensifying "lawfare" against the West—using courts, legal claims, and international institutions to pressure Western governments, weaken support for Ukraine, and create justification for more aggressive actions. The report notes that Russian experts have analyzed Iran's 2016 case against the United States at the International Court of Justice and are looking for ways to adapt similar tactics. Additionally, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law in late May granting him authority to use military force to protect Russian citizens abroad, a step previously taken before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite these moves, Latvian intelligence stated that Latvia does not currently face a threat of full-scale invasion, estimating that even if the war in Ukraine ended today, Russia would need three to five years to rebuild sufficient military capability. The immediate concern remains provocations involving drones, missiles, and other hybrid attacks.
Topics
Why This Matters
This warning signals that Russia's hybrid tactics are escalating beyond Ukraine into direct pressure on NATO allies. For readers, this means increased risk of cyberattacks, drone incursions, and legal battles that could test NATO's solidarity and U.S. security commitments. Understanding these moves is crucial for assessing European security and the potential for wider conflict.
Timeline & Sources
Jun 22, 2026
WireLatvian intelligence warns of Russian hybrid attack preparations
Jun 22, 2026
WireFox News publishes interview with Latvian intelligence
Jun 23, 2026
WireMeduza reports on Latvian intelligence warning