Iran Agreement Marks End of Trump's War but Exposes Limits of US Dominance

A ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran has concluded a major military conflict that began on February 28, representing what analysts describe as a significant diplomatic failure for the Trump administration. The two-page memorandum of understanding containing 14 points will reopen the Strait of Hormuz—through which approximately 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas passes—restore extended ceasefires, and lift US naval blockades on Iranian ports. However, the accord is not a comprehensive peace treaty; critical issues including Iran's nuclear programme and the scope of sanctions relief remain unresolved for future negotiations.

The war originated from what BBC International Editor Jeremy Bowen characterises as a fundamental miscalculation by US and Israeli leadership regarding Tehran's capacity to resist. On February 27, as nuclear talks were ongoing in Geneva and the Strait of Hormuz remained open to commerce, Israeli forces assassinated Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his closest advisors. Nearly simultaneously, a US airstrike destroyed a school in Minab in southern Iran, killing over 150 civilians, including at least 120 children predominantly aged under 12. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the conflict expecting a brief, decisive victory and regime collapse. Instead, the operation strengthened Iran's political establishment and leadership resolve.

Following Khamenei's death, his son Mojtaba assumed the position of Supreme Leader, with a younger generation of commanders—predominantly from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps—assuming power. Ideologically hardline yet less cautious than predecessors, these leaders pursued a coordinated strategy including blockading the Strait of Hormuz, attacking Arab neighbours, US military installations, and Israeli territory. US Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth's claims that American military power had disabled Iranian armed forces proved exaggerated and inaccurate.

The conflict has severely damaged American standing and alliance structures. Arab Gulf oil-producing nations that serve as stability anchors in the Middle East now require years to rebuild relationships with Washington. Privately, officials from these states have begun discussing alliance diversification and coexistence arrangements with Iran, a development China closely monitors. The United States expended weapons stockpiles difficult to rapidly replenish and reached the limits of its military capacity. The war has killed thousands across the Middle East, destroyed residential and commercial infrastructure, and disrupted fertiliser supply chains dependent on Strait of Hormuz transit—potentially creating food security crises in Sub-Saharan Africa and other impoverished regions.

Israel, excluded from memorandum negotiations despite being a full war partner, expresses disappointment with the agreement. Netanyahu faces political criticism for endangering Israeli security and contends with cabinet hardliners and opponents demanding expanded operations in Lebanon. Israel's defence minister has stated forces will occupy Lebanese, Syrian, and Gaza territory indefinitely, with some officials calling for southern Lebanon annexation. Netanyahu must balance internal pressure against potential friction with Trump, who has recently expressed dissatisfaction with the Israeli leader in American media appearances.

Analysts acknowledge that while the memorandum offers temporary relief to civilians caught in conflict, transforming it into a comprehensive US-Iran accord faces formidable obstacles. Ideology and deep mistrust render major strategic agreements seemingly unreachable. The outcome reflects a superpower struggling to maintain global dominance amid a volatile world order.