US-Iran Ceasefire Opens Strait of Hormuz, But Experts Warn Gas Prices Will Not Drop Quickly

On Wednesday evening, President Donald Trump officially signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, initiating a 60-day ceasefire and longer-term nuclear talks between the two nations. The agreement also reopens the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway between Iran and Oman through which 20 million barrels of oil typically transit daily. By Thursday morning, 10 vessels that had been stranded for the entire 110-day US-Iran war began moving out of the area, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward, signaling a resumption of traffic.

Despite the reopening, experts caution that American consumers should not expect gasoline prices—which have risen over 35 percent nationally since late February—to recover swiftly. The strait remains seeded with an undetermined number of underwater mines, and shipping industry leaders express ongoing safety concerns. Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at BIMCO, the world's largest international shipping organization, stated that the central part of the strait is “mined and un-navigable,” forcing vessels into narrower channels near Iran or Oman.

President Trump has continued to threaten military action, telling reporters on Wednesday, “We will bomb them if Iran doesn’t permanently shut down its nuclear program. It’s amazing what bombs can do.” These statements have not reassured shippers or insurers, who require “credible assurances from both sides of the conflict” before resuming full traffic, according to Larsen. The memorandum also lacked critical details on safe routes, vessel movement protocols, military involvement, or potential tolls Iran might impose.

Demining efforts are underway, but the timeline remains uncertain. Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward, noted that “nobody knows how long that will take—six weeks or six months.” The operation may involve multiple countries, minesweeping ships, underwater drones, military divers, and even US Navy-trained mine-detecting dolphins, though reports indicate dolphins are unlikely to be currently active in the area.

Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of Business, emphasized that the global oil supply-demand balance has been “incredibly disrupted.” He warned that consumers buying gas, food, fertilizer, and other oil-dependent products should not expect a rapid recovery. “None of these things would have happened if you had not had the war,” Miller added. While crude oil prices have fallen slightly since the memorandum’s announcement, analysts advise budgeting for higher wartime prices in the longer term.

The war may have permanently altered global shipping dynamics, as Iran has demonstrated its ability to shut down the strait. A key unresolved question is whether the country will be permitted to impose tolls on passing ships, a possibility that could further increase costs.