Kazakhstan's Trade Surplus Shrinks as Import Surge and Declining Exports Pressure Tenge

Kazakhstan faces mounting external trade pressures in 2026, marked by a substantial contraction in its trade surplus and structural economic imbalances that threaten currency stability. In the first four months of 2026, the trade surplus declined by nearly 24 percent to 3.1 billion dollars, despite overall external trade turnover reaching 44.9 billion dollars. Exports grew only modestly at 5 percent to 24 billion dollars, while imports surged 11.3 percent to 20.9 billion dollars, with April alone recording a trade deficit of 400 million dollars.

The deterioration reflects two interconnected challenges: declining energy revenues and robust domestic demand. Oil and fuel exports fell sharply by 13.3 percent to 11.2 billion dollars, and mineral products overall dropped 4.6 percent to 13.8 billion dollars, together accounting for approximately 44 percent of export earnings. Meanwhile, machinery and equipment purchases—the largest import category at 9.2 billion dollars—climbed 13.2 percent, alongside rising imports of chemicals and food products. Assan Kurmanbekov, a macroeconomics expert at the Asan analytical centre, warned that even with Brent crude oil forecast at 85 dollars per barrel, Kazakhstan faces a projected current account deficit of 7 billion dollars for 2026, maintaining downward pressure on the tenge exchange rate.

Geographic trade patterns also shifted markedly, with Asia's share of Kazakhstan's external trade expanding to 36.8 percent from 32 percent year-on-year. Exports to Asian markets surged 48 percent, driven by exceptional growth to China (up 38.2 percent), Turkey (up 54.8 percent), Uzbekistan (up 44 percent), and South Korea (up over 1,000 percent). These gains, along with increased shipments of agricultural products (up 38.8 percent), metals (up 23 percent), and chemicals (up 17.2 percent), only partially offset the decline in commodity exports, illustrating Kazakhstan's limited ability to substitute lost energy revenues through non-traditional sectors.