Science
Jun 17, 20261
59%
USP simulator gives Brazil 8.3% chance of winning 2026 World Cup
A simulator developed by researchers associated with the University of São Paulo estimates Brazil has an 8.3% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup. The interactive platform also ranks Spain, France, England and Portugal ahead of Brazil in the current projections.
The project allows users to track probabilities in real time and adjust the underlying simulation criteria. Its creators say the goal is to make statistical modeling more accessible to football fans.
Quick Facts
Who
University of São Paulo (USP)
What
Researchers updated an interactive World Cup prediction simulator
When
2026
Where
University of São Paulo
- Researchers updated an interactive World Cup prediction simulator
- The platform shows real-time championship probabilities for national teams
- The model placed Brazil among the top five contenders to win the 2026 World Cup
- University of São Paulo (USP)
- Francisco Louzada Neto
Researchers linked to the University of São Paulo have updated an interactive football simulation platform that estimates each national team's chances of winning the 2026 World Cup. The tool, called "Previsão Esportiva" (Sports Forecast), lets users follow the probabilities in real time and adjust selections and calculation criteria as the tournament unfolds.
According to the latest projections cited by the project, Brazil has an 8.3% chance of winning the title, placing it among the five most likely champions. Spain tops the model at 15.9%, followed by France at 14.8%, England at 10.3% and Portugal at 9.9%.
The platform was developed as a research and science-communication initiative involving USP and partner institutions including the Federal University of Bahia, Federal University of São Carlos, the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, the Federal University of Mato Grosso and Neoma Business School. One of the project's creators, Francisco Louzada Neto, said opening the algorithm to the public shows that statistics and data science are transparent tools for understanding the world.
The project has also been presented as a way for fans to run their own simulations and explore different scenarios, including predictions around matches and informal betting pools. The latest version is described as an adaptation of an earlier platform created during the 2010 World Cup.
Why This Matters
This matters because predictive models shape how fans, media, and even sponsors interpret tournament favorites long before kickoff. If you follow the 2026 World Cup, the simulator offers a data-driven way to compare teams, test assumptions, and monitor how injuries, results, or parameter changes could alter title odds.
Timeline & Sources
Jan 1, 2010
WireResearchers say the original version of the prediction platform was created for the 2010 World Cup.
Jun 17, 2026
WireO Liberal published a report on the updated simulator and its World Cup 2026 forecasts.
Entities
- England national football team
- Neoma Business School
- Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar)
- Haiti national football team
- Spain national football team
- Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)
- Federal University of Bahia (UFBA)
- Portugal national football team
- Previsão Esportiva
- Francisco Louzada Neto
- France national football team
- Brazil national football team
- University of São Paulo (USP)
- Federal University of Mato Grosso (UFMT)