Science
Jun 17, 20261
59%
Brazil Ranked Among Top World Cup Contenders in University-Built Prediction Model
A prediction platform built by statisticians from Brazilian universities and a company is estimating World Cup title chances using statistical models. The system ranks Brazil among the top contenders, although a public survey found only 35% of Brazilians believe the team will win in 2026.
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Quick Facts
Who
Previsão Esportiva
What
Developed an interactive World Cup prediction platform
When
before the 2026 World Cup
Where
Brazil
- Developed an interactive World Cup prediction platform
- Used Bayesian and strength-based statistical models to estimate title chances
- Ranked Brazil among the top 10 teams most likely to win the World Cup
- Reported public opinion on Brazil's chances of winning in 2026
- Previsão Esportiva
A forecasting platform called Previsão Esportiva, developed by statisticians from five universities including the University of São Paulo and the Federal University of São Carlos, together with a company, is estimating the chances of teams winning the World Cup. The project uses statistical models to calculate likely scores and update probabilities as tournament results come in.
The platform places Brazil among the 10 teams most likely to win the title. In one associated public survey, however, only 35% of respondents said they believe Brazil will win the 2026 World Cup, while 56% said they do not believe in that outcome and 9% did not answer.
The site presents two main approaches: a Bayesian model that combines objective indicators such as FIFA rankings with expert predictions, and a strength model based only on measurable factors such as FIFA and Elo rankings, recent performance, World Cup history, host status and squad market value. In the Bayesian version, Spain, France and Argentina were among the leading contenders; in the strength model, France, England and Spain ranked highest.
The researchers said the project has existed in some form since the 2006 World Cup and became more established during the 2010 tournament. The platform is designed to be dynamic, with probabilities changing as real match results are entered into the system.
Why This Matters
This story matters because prediction models can shape public expectations, media framing, and even betting or fan sentiment ahead of a major tournament. For readers tracking Brazil’s World Cup outlook, the key takeaway is that model-based odds and public belief are not the same thing: Brazil may remain statistically competitive even when domestic confidence is low. The platform’s dynamic updates also make it useful to monitor as new match results, rankings, and squad data shift the probabilities.
Timeline & Sources
Jan 1, 2006
WireResearchers said they had begun studying World Cup prediction models.
Jan 1, 2010
WireThe project became more established during the World Cup.
Jun 17, 2026
WireG1 published an article about the platform and its World Cup title forecasts.