IEA Reports $710 Million Drop in Russia's May Oil Export Revenue, Near Record Highs

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a $710 million decline in Russia's oil export revenues in May compared to April, driven by falling prices across all petroleum products. Despite the monthly drop, revenues of $20.8 billion remain $8.18 billion higher than in May 2025 and are near historical highs.

According to the IEA, total oil and petroleum product exports in May held steady at 7.35 million barrels per day (bpd), matching April levels. Crude oil exports rose by 170,000 bpd to 5.19 million bpd, offsetting a 150,000 bpd decline in petroleum product exports to 2.16 million bpd. Revenue from crude sales increased by $130 million to $14.56 billion, while revenue from petroleum products fell by $840 million to $6.23 billion amid sharp price decreases for diesel, naphtha, and vacuum gas oil (VGO).

Russian crude oil exports in May rose by 490,000 bpd year-on-year and returned to levels seen in 2022. Pipeline supplies via the Druzhba pipeline increased by 140,000 bpd after previously halted deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia resumed, though Kazakhstan's oil transit to Germany via Druzhba stopped. Seaborne exports saw only a minor overall increase, but petroleum product shipments dropped by 0.5 million bpd to 2.2 million bpd, mainly due to weak gasoline outflows.

India significantly increased purchases of Russian crude by sea in May, buying 1.9 million bpd — up 360,000 bpd. Specifically, India's imports of Russia's ESPO blend hit a record high of 370,000 bpd, while Urals purchases fell by 30% from March levels to 1.2 million bpd. Conversely, China's seaborne imports of Russian crude fell by 400,000 bpd to 1 million bpd.

The IEA estimated that Russia's oil production dropped by 230,000 bpd in May compared to April, reaching 8.7 million bpd — 475,000 bpd lower than a year ago. Due to continued attacks on energy infrastructure, the agency revised its 2026 production forecast down by 200,000 bpd to 8.95 million bpd. The IEA also noted that volumes of Russian crude stored in tankers, which spiked in January under U.S. sanctions pressure on India, returned to pre-sanctions levels of 107 million barrels after the U.S. issued a sanctions waiver in April.