Trump's G2 Strategy Deepens US Establishment Anxiety Over Weakened Alliances

Senior figures in America's strategic establishment are increasingly concerned about President Trump's emphasis on a two-power framework between the United States and China, fearing this approach will undermine the alliance system and partnerships that have underpinned U.S. competition with major powers. Their anxiety has intensified following Trump's recent visit to China, during which the White House agreed to establish a "constructive strategic stability relationship"—seen as a concrete manifestation of the G2 concept.

Trump's approach implicitly recognizes China as a near-peer competitor to the United States, regardless of whether it is framed as an adversary or partner. This shift in positioning has strategic consequences: the administration now seeks Chinese assistance in international affairs, including in U.S.-Iran relations, with Trump praising China and Russia for maintaining "neutrality" on critical issues. Simultaneously, the U.S. has become more cautious regarding China's core interests, particularly Taiwan, to avoid conflict.

Central to Trump's strategy is a bilateral "one-on-one" approach with China rather than a multilateral alliance framework, especially at the highest levels of engagement. This bilateral focus complicates efforts by traditional U.S. allies to build a unified front against Chinese economic competition. The G7 summit in France this year was partly intended to coordinate a response to what Western officials call "China Shock 2.0"—the surge of Chinese exports to Europe. However, Trump's trade war has disrupted global supply chains, and his "America First" transactional approach to restructuring ties with China leaves Western developed nations pursuing divergent interests, making unified opposition to China increasingly difficult.