Israel's October election deadlocked: Netanyahu loses majority as Arab parties gain historic seats

Israel's October 28, 2026, election produced a fractured parliament with no party or bloc able to form a government alone. Final results, confirmed after a near-complete count released October 29–30, showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc securing 53 of 120 Knesset seats, while the centrist opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot won 48 seats. Arab-majority parties achieved historic representation with a combined 19 seats—nearly double their 2022 total—driven by record Arab voter turnout of approximately 80 percent, compared to 53.2 percent in the previous election. Overall national voter turnout reached 77.7–77.9 percent, the highest at closing time since 1999. With neither bloc holding the required 61 seats for a majority, the country faces weeks or months of coalition negotiations.

Netanyahu's Likud party remained the largest single party with 26–27 seats, followed by Eisenkot's Yashar with 21 and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's Beyachad with 12. The Joint List (an alliance of Arab-majority parties) secured approximately 11–12 seats and the Ra'am party seven to eight seats. The Arab parties have called for a coalition with Eisenkot's bloc, proposing an unprecedented Jewish-Arab partnership, but Eisenkot and most opposition leaders ruled out such an alliance during the campaign. Netanyahu and his coalition also rejected Arab participation in government. Only Yair Golan, head of the smaller left-wing Democrats party, publicly backed Arab-Jewish cooperation before the election.

Coalition negotiations will begin after Israeli President Isaac Herzog consults with party leaders and officially certifies results on November 4. Under Israeli law, the president will task a candidate with 28 days to form a government, with a possible 14-day extension. Four potential paths have been identified: an opposition government with Arab support (politically difficult but mathematically viable), a national unity government combining Netanyahu's bloc with opposition parties, defections from opposition lawmakers to Netanyahu's bloc, or another election. Some reports suggest ultra-Orthodox lawmakers may be exploring distance from Netanyahu over military conscription disputes, potentially creating openings for alternative coalitions.

Netanyahu's Likud party alleged foreign interference in the election, specifically claiming that Qatar had transferred substantial sums to influence Arab voter turnout through channels previously used for terrorist financing. The allegations have not been independently substantiated. Shin Bet Director David Zini presented intelligence on suspected foreign interference to Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Noam Sohlberg, prompting an investigation. Qatar categorically denied the allegations, accusing Israeli politicians of using the Gulf nation as a "scapegoat" for electoral losses. The Central Elections Committee's acting director general, Dean Livne, stated there was "no basis for allegations of systematic violations of electoral integrity," and the Shin Bet clarified its investigation did not "cast aspersions" on Arabs who exercised their democratic right to vote. Eisenkot accused Netanyahu of attempting to delegitimize the results through unfounded claims.

The 2026 election was widely characterized as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership in the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, attacks on southern Israel. Arab voters, who comprise approximately 20 percent of Israel's population and are mostly descendants of Palestinians who remained within Israeli borders after 1948, turned out in record numbers, many hoping to remove Netanyahu and far-right coalition members including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir from power. The heightened Arab participation has reshaped Israel's political landscape and brought Palestinian citizens' grievances into sharper focus as potential kingmakers in government formation.