Milei Leads 2027 Race but Faces Tight Runoff Against Kicillof, Poll Shows

A survey by RDT Consultores reveals that President Javier Milei would win Argentina's 2027 presidential election with 28.8% of the vote in a fragmented first round, but faces a dramatically tighter contest in potential runoff scenarios. The poll, conducted between May 25 and 31, 2026, among 1,665 national respondents with a 3% margin of error, shows Axel Kicillof trailing at 16.6%, while Peronist candidates Sergio Massa, Juan Grabois, and Sergio Uñac collectively gather only 7.4% support. A candidate from "a new and different space" would receive 12.5%, with Myriam Bregman at 6.6%, Vice President Victoria Villarruel at 4.8%, and blank votes at 12.8%.

However, the runoff scenarios present starkly different outcomes. In a hypothetical second round against Senator Patricia Bullrich, Milei would prevail with 28.4% to her 14%, but blank votes would surge to a record 43.9%—suggesting voter dissatisfaction with both candidates. More concerning for Milei is a potential matchup against Kicillof, where Milei's advantage shrinks to just 1.2 percentage points (36% to 34.8%), falling within the poll's margin of error. This represents a significant tightening from April, when Milei led by 4.4 percentage points.

The survey highlights a paradox: while Milei maintains a commanding lead in the general election landscape, his vulnerability emerges when facing individual opponents in direct competition. Bullrich's rising positive image—driven partly by Milei's reputational damage from recent scandals—positions her as a potential kingmaker in a fragmented opposition. The analysis notes that when Milei and Bullrich compete within similar political space, Milei retains approximately two-thirds of those voters, leaving Bullrich as an electorally subordinate but relevant alternative.

The data underscores the deep fracturing of Argentine politics, with the Peronist movement scattered across multiple candidates and the emergence of new political spaces. The threat of a runoff against Kicillof appears to pose the greatest challenge to Milei's reelection prospects, particularly given the narrowing gap and the unpredictability that blank votes could introduce into either scenario.