IDF Warns Israeli Leadership Against Full Withdrawal from Southern Lebanon

Following a U.S.-Iran memorandum addressing the cessation of fighting across multiple fronts including Lebanon, the Israeli Defense Forces have issued three critical warnings to Israel's political leadership about the risks of withdrawing from southern Lebanon. The IDF has emphasized the necessity of maintaining freedom of military action throughout Lebanon, preserving a buffer zone that may extend beyond currently held territory, and ensuring complete demilitarization of the region south of the Litani River.

The security situation has entered what analysts describe as a complex twilight zone since the memorandum's signing. The IDF's operational tempo has shifted dramatically, with the rate of fire falling significantly and strikes on major Lebanese cities including Beirut, Tyre, and Sidon largely ceasing. Despite this reduction in large-scale operations, IDF forces continue to hold strategic positions in areas such as the Beaufort Ridge and maintain focus on removing immediate threats and conducting underground operations.

Senior military officials have conducted extensive discussions to chart the next course of action, citing lessons from October 7 as justification for maintaining a prolonged presence in southern Lebanese territory. The IDF is currently analyzing terrain and preparing detailed recommendations for political leadership on the configuration of any long-term presence, considering options ranging from permanent outposts and fortified positions to models based on fire control, remote surveillance, and targeted commando operations.

The military has established non-negotiable conditions for the next phase: complete demilitarization of the area south of the Litani River with removal of all Hezbollah weapons and personnel, and preservation of Israel's full freedom of action to operate and strike anywhere in Lebanon to counter emerging threats. Military commanders have warned against a complete withdrawal from the security zone, emphasizing that the lessons learned from past security breaches necessitate ongoing territorial presence.