El Niño reaches record strength as Pacific temperatures soar to 2°C above normal

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed in mid-September 2026 that El Niño has entered a "super" strength category, with the Niño 3.4 Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) reaching 2.0°C (3.6°F) above average—the official threshold for "very strong" classification. This marks the first time such intensity has been recorded on this date, and forecasts suggest the phenomenon could ultimately peak at levels not seen in decades. The World Meteorological Organization estimates a near-100% probability that El Niño will persist through at least February 2027, with some projections indicating peak strength as late as early 2027. This is the first strong El Niño with an eastern Pacific warm pattern since the late 1990s, occurring in a climate system already warmed by decades of greenhouse gas accumulation.

The accelerating temperature anomaly is already disrupting major economic and environmental systems globally. Peru's government cancelled its anchovy fishing season early in August after warm water drove adult fish to deeper, colder depths, affecting one of the world's most productive fisheries. Drought conditions have reduced freshwater availability for the Panama Canal's lock systems, slowing international maritime traffic. In Central America, tens of thousands of smallholder farmers across Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador reported crop losses. The Caribbean experienced intensified water shortages, with Puerto Rico implementing rationing and Jamaica facing crop stress. Indonesia recorded above-average wildfire activity, while India experienced rainfall 15% below normal during its critical summer monsoon period (June 1–September 9). Parts of southern and East Africa face a combination of drought, elevated fuel and fertilizer costs, and threatened food security.

The phenomenon is simultaneously bringing extreme rainfall to other regions. East Africa is forecast to receive 90% probability of heavier-than-normal precipitation from October through December, which could trigger flooding despite the region's need for moisture. Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and northern Peru experienced intense rainfall and flooding, with damage to mining operations and temporary closure of Machu Picchu. The southern United States and parts of South America also face elevated flood risk as the event develops.

Climate scientists emphasize the unprecedented nature of current conditions. This El Niño is both stronger on record for this date and is occurring in a world approximately 0.9–1.2°C warmer than during the previous strongest event (1982–83). The World Food Programme projects that El Niño could push 49 million additional people into acute hunger by end of 2027, raising the global total to 274 million across 45 analysed countries. The UN estimates potential global economic losses in the trillions, comparable to or exceeding the $5.7 trillion impact of the 1997–98 super-El Niño. Maize, rice, and other rain-fed crops face the highest risk in Southern Africa, the Sahel, and South and Southeast Asia.

Scientists note that the interaction between natural El Niño cycles and anthropogenic warming complicates short-term prediction. NOAA's RONI metric, implemented in February 2026, was designed specifically to isolate El Niño's true strength by subtracting the baseline warming caused by climate change. The unprecedented combination of record Pacific warming with background global temperature rise means historical analogues provide limited guidance for impacts in specific regions. Forecasters expect above-normal temperatures almost everywhere from September through November 2026, with the most pronounced effects typically felt during boreal winter when El Niño's atmospheric influence peaks.