Global ocean temperatures hit record high for July 2026 amid El Niño

The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that global ocean surface temperatures reached a record high in July 2026. The average sea surface temperature outside polar regions (between 60 degrees north and south latitude) reached 20.96°C, surpassing the previous July record of 20.89°C set in 2023. Developing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific contributed to the exceptionally warm waters, with forecasts indicating further strengthening in the coming months. Globally, July 2026 was the joint second-warmest July on record, tied with 2024, with average surface air temperatures 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline).

Western Europe simultaneously experienced severe heat and drought conditions. The region's June–July period was the hottest on record, with average temperatures reaching 21.62°C—2.79°C above the 1991–2020 average and exceeding the previous record set in 2022. Record sea surface temperatures emerged along the Atlantic coast and western Mediterranean, where widespread strong and severe marine heatwaves developed. This was the third consecutive month of exceptional heat across western Europe. According to climate scientist Samantha Burgess, persistent high-pressure systems trapped heat over the region while dry soils reduced natural cooling capacity, creating conditions where "heat and drought increasingly reinforc[e] one another."

The drought and heat triggered cascading impacts across Europe's economy and infrastructure. France, Spain, and parts of Germany and the UK recorded exceptionally low rainfall and soil moisture. Major rivers—including the Seine, Rhine, and Danube—experienced significantly below-average flows, disrupting water supplies, irrigation, river transport, and power generation. Hungary's sole nuclear power plant shut down for the first time in its 44-year history due to insufficient cooling water, while two coal-fired power plants in Poland were forced offline. Early estimates suggest June heat alone cost grain farmers €2 billion in lost crops.

Wildfire activity reached exceptional levels across the European Union, with approximately 500,000 hectares burned since the start of 2026. Persistent hot, dry, and windy conditions created favourable conditions for large, high-intensity wildfires, particularly in southern Europe, while extending the fire season northward. The combination of heat and drought was expected to result in more than 10,000 heat-related deaths, with particularly severe mortality linked to intense heat at the end of June. Emissions and smoke from large wildfires reached higher into the atmosphere, affecting air quality thousands of kilometres away.