Strait of Hormuz Traffic Recovers as Iran-U.S. Toll Dispute Threatens Long-Term Peace

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased following an interim agreement between Iran and the United States to end a conflict that severely disrupted global oil supplies and contributed to inflation. However, the future remains uncertain as both nations dispute control of the vital waterway and whether tolls will be charged to transiting vessels. Data from Kpler showed 71 ships crossed the strait between Friday and Sunday in late June 2026, with a peak of 35 crossings on Saturday—significantly below the pre-war average of 100 to 130 vessels daily before strikes in late February.

Tensions flared when Iran claimed to have reclosed the strait citing Israeli attacks on Lebanon, a claim the U.S. immediately contested. Maritime tracking data confirmed vessels continued passing through, though using alternative routes. The provisional memorandum of understanding allows Iran to temporarily manage the strait while discussions proceed with Oman and six other Gulf states to define future administration. As part of the agreement, Iran committed to conducting demining operations within 30 days and removing technical and military obstacles to shipping, with Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf stating his country would manage the strait in accordance with international maritime law.

The toll question remains contentious. Iran established a new Persian Gulf Strait Authority last month to collect fees from vessels and continues to expect registration, despite agreeing to waive tolls for 60 days. President Donald Trump suggested the United States might impose its own tolls on crossing vessels if a final deal is not reached during the 60-day negotiation window, justified as compensation for services as "Guardian Angel" to Middle Eastern nations. The Trump administration had previously sanctioned Iran's toll authority, which early in the conflict operated what shipping analysts called a "tollbooth" scheme requiring payment for passage.

Legal experts and maritime associations have warned that establishing a toll regime would overturn decades of international trade precedent governing the world's waters. The main central shipping route remains mined and closed; vessels have been using the smaller northern route through Iranian waters and the southern route through Omani waters, with many keeping transponders off due to ongoing caution. Analysts estimate it could take months for oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and other commodity flows to return to pre-war levels even if a final accord is reached.