US-Iran Ceasefire Agreement Threatened by Israeli Military Operations in Lebanon

The United States and Iran have finalized a first-phase memorandum of understanding aimed at ending Middle East hostilities, but Israeli military operations in Lebanon have immediately jeopardized the agreement. On June 14, the day the US-Iran accord was scheduled to be signed, Israel launched airstrikes on the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut in response to alleged attacks by Lebanon's Hezbollah. President Trump publicly condemned the strikes, calling them "too severe" and "too excessive"—a rare rebuke of a close ally that signals shifting US priorities. Analysis suggests the incident reveals deep fractures in the historically close US-Israel relationship that have long been obscured.

The situation escalated dramatically on June 18, just hours after the "Islamabad Memorandum" first phase was signed remotely. Despite the ceasefire agreement's explicit provisions for an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts including Lebanon, Israeli forces conducted military operations in southern Lebanon, including artillery strikes on the Fakka area and drone strikes on Tabnine village in the Nabatiyeh region.

Iran responded with a strong warning through Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei on June 18, stating that if Israel continued its aggression or maintained military presence in Lebanon, it would constitute a breach of the memorandum and render the agreement "waste paper." Baghaei emphasized that the United States bore responsibility for compelling Israel to honor the commitments outlined in the document. The memorandum explicitly includes clauses mandating the immediate and permanent cessation of military operations across all fronts, including Lebanon.

Trump's unprecedented public criticism of Israeli military operations reflects the Trump administration's strategic priorities, which center on ending Middle East conflict within a hundred days, maintaining freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, stabilizing international oil prices, and achieving a signature diplomatic achievement. In this calculation, Israel's unilateral military impulses and security demands no longer enjoy absolute priority. When Israeli military actions obstruct broader American interests, Washington has demonstrated willingness to apply public pressure and expose alliance divisions. On June 15, multiple US military air refueling tankers departed Ben Gurion Airport, signaling America's accelerating disengagement from the conflict zone.