North Eurasian Climate Forum Issues Summer 2026 Weather Forecast

The 30th session of the North Eurasian Climate Forum (NEACOF-30) took place from 19 to 21 May 2026 in Moscow in a hybrid format, bringing together 118 participants from nine countries, with 45 attending in person. The forum featured presentations from Russian and international experts, focusing on scientific advances in hydrometeorology, the development of hydrodynamic modeling, and the application of artificial intelligence in weather prediction. A key outcome was the release of a consensus forecast for temperature and precipitation anomalies for the summer of 2026, along with assessments of climate changes observed during the winter of 2025–2026. Specialists from Roshydromet also presented reports on the practical use of seasonal weather forecasts, and a forecast of socio-economic impacts for the summer season in the North Eurasian region was developed using the ESCAP methodology.

The consensus forecast for summer 2026 was based on data from three Russian models: PLAV (from the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia and the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences), GGO (from the Main Geophysical Observatory named after Voeykov), and IVM (from the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences). According to the forecast, above-normal temperatures are expected on the Kola Peninsula, across much of Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine, along the Black Sea coast of Russia and parts of southern European Russia, in Central Asian countries (excluding extreme northwestern Kazakhstan, southern Uzbekistan, and western Tajikistan), in southern areas of Western Siberia, in Eastern Siberia (excluding the south), and in the Russian Far East (excluding eastern Amur Region, southern Khabarovsk Krai, northern Primorsky Krai, eastern Magadan Region, and the Kamchatka Peninsula). High-confidence positive anomalies (75–90% probability) are predicted for eastern Kazakhstan, parts of eastern Yakutia, and northern Khabarovsk Krai. For most of European Russia, the Urals, and the Caucasus (except Armenia, where positive anomalies are indicated), the temperature forecast remains uncertain.

Regarding precipitation, a deficit (with 30–60% probability) is expected in western Belarus, most of Ukraine (except central areas), Moldova, southwestern European Russia, and parts of Kaluga and eastern Smolensk regions. In Central Asia, dry conditions are forecast for eastern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, eastern Tajikistan, and extreme eastern Uzbekistan. In the Asian part of Russia, precipitation deficits are anticipated in southern Siberia (excluding areas around Lake Baikal, where excess moisture is expected), northern Khabarovsk Krai, Primorsky Krai, parts of Magadan Region, and central areas of Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. With 30–75% probability, excess precipitation is forecast in parts of the Kola Peninsula, central and northern European Russia, the Urals (except southern areas), Western Siberia, parts of northern Krasnoyarsk Krai, some areas of central and southeastern Yakutia, southern Khabarovsk Krai, Sakhalin, and eastern Kamchatka Krai.

The forum also included presentations from national hydrometeorological services on the accuracy of forecasts from the previous winter season and on regional forecast features for summer 2026. Participants highlighted the importance of international cooperation and the integration of advanced modeling techniques to improve seasonal prediction capabilities.