Milei Leads by 10 Points in First Round, Tied with Kicillof in Runoff, According to Explanans Poll

A new electoral survey by the Córdoba-based polling firm Explanans reveals a complex political landscape in Argentina, with President Javier Milei holding a commanding 10-point advantage over Axel Kicillof in a first-round scenario, but facing an even contest in a potential runoff. The poll, conducted nationally among 7,015 respondents between May 28 and June 3, shows Milei at 38.2 percent versus Kicillof's 28 percent for a first-round matchup—a margin that would approach an outright victory, as winning without a runoff requires reaching 40 percent and maintaining a 10-point lead over the second-place finisher. Other candidates trail significantly: left-wing candidate Myriam Bregman of the Left Front registers 12.8 percent, while former President Mauricio Macri of PRO receives just 5.2 percent.

The runoff scenario presents a starkly different picture. In a head-to-head matchup between Milei and Buenos Aires Governor Kicillof, the survey shows a near-perfect tie, with Kicillof at 43.8 percent and Milei at 42.9 percent—with Kicillof holding only a marginal advantage. The poll also reveals clear demographic divides: Milei performs stronger among men (48.8 percent versus Kicillof's 40.4 percent) and voters under 30 (46.9 percent versus 38.2 percent), while Kicillof leads among women (46.9 percent to 37.6 percent) and adults aged 30 to 50 (47.8 percent to 39.7 percent).

Explanans, which gained prominence for accurately predicting the 2023 runoff victory of Milei over Sergio Massa, has been conducting regular evaluations of the Milei presidency since his inauguration. The ninth in its series of reports, released on June 18, adopts the ominous title "Winter is Coming," reflecting broader assessments of Milei's struggling approval ratings and a negative image trajectory for both the president and his government. The survey carries a margin of error of 1.17 percent.