BJP Consolidates Lok Sabha Position, Shifting NDA Power Dynamics

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has significantly strengthened its position in the Lok Sabha, altering the power dynamics within the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Following the 2024 general elections, where the BJP secured only 240 seats, it relied on key allies like the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal (United) to form a government. However, recent political developments, including the fragmentation of opposition parties such as the Trinamool Congress and the Shiv Sena, have shifted the balance of power within the coalition.

According to an Economic Times report, the defection of six MPs from the Uddhav Thackeray faction (UBT) to the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena could increase that party's strength to 14. Additionally, a faction of 20 MPs that split from the Trinamool Congress (NCPI) has aligned with the NDA. These groups are now heavily dependent on the BJP, giving the party a broader support base and more options to manage coalition politics. As a result, the relative influence of the NDA's two largest allies—TDP and JDU—may weaken.

Analysts suggest that JDU's assertiveness has diminished due to Chief Minister Nitish Kumar gradually stepping back from active political management and ongoing leadership transitions within the party. Meanwhile, TDP's bargaining power could also be affected. However, the importance of these allies is not entirely diminished. For any major constitutional amendment bill, such as delimitation, the government would still require a two-thirds majority, making the support of these larger allies indispensable.

The shifting arithmetic also has implications for federal budget allocations. In the first NDA 3.0 budget, Andhra Pradesh received substantial funds for its new capital Amaravati, an industrial corridor, and the Polavaram project, while Bihar got special packages for infrastructure, flood management, and economic development. Speculation is now rife about a potential cabinet reshuffle as the expanded NDA's dynamics continue to evolve.