Oct 9·Science
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Record-breaking El Niño reaches peak strength, bringing warm winter to Japan
The Japan Meteorological Agency and China's National Climate Center announced on October 9 that El Niño has reached record strength with September sea surface temperatures 4.0°C above baseline—the highest since 1949. Peaking around December, the phenomenon is expected to bring warm winters to Japan and disrupt weather patterns globally, including drought in India, intensified wildfires in Indonesia, and agricultural threats in Brazil.
Quick Facts
- El Niño phenomenon reached record strength
- Sea surface temperature anomalies recorded at +4.0°C in September
- Previous record of +3.6°C from December 1997 was exceeded
- Warm winter weather predicted for Japan
- Strong high-pressure circulation near Philippines expected



The Japan Meteorological Agency and China's National Climate Center announced on October 9, 2026, that El Niño has reached its strongest recorded intensity since systematic monitoring began in 1949. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have risen to record levels, with September measurements showing anomalies of +4.0°C compared to baseline—exceeding the previous record of +3.6°C set in December 1997.
The phenomenon began in spring 2026 and is expected to peak around December before gradually weakening through 2027. The World Meteorological Organization forecasts that October-December sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific will be 3.7°C above normal levels. This marks what scientists describe as a "super-duper El Niño," with some ocean depths recording temperature anomalies as high as 10°C above normal.
El Niño's effects are already visible across Asia and beyond. India experienced its weakest monsoon rainfall in over a decade, with June-September precipitation in 2026 reaching only 87.4% of long-term averages. Indonesia faces intensified wildfires producing hazardous smoke drifting to Singapore and Malaysia. Brazil's sugar and coffee production faces threats, while drought conditions in Central America have damaged crops in Honduras.
For Japan, the strong high-pressure circulation developing near the Philippines is expected to drive warm, humid air northward, resulting in an unusually warm winter across most regions from December 2026 through February 2027. The Japan Meteorological Agency notes increased precipitation is likely in Pacific-facing areas of northern and eastern Japan, and in southwestern Japan and the Okinawa Islands. However, forecasters caution that even during warm winters, temporary severe snowfall can occur due to southern coastal low-pressure systems.
Globally, El Niño typically drives up temperatures in the year following peak intensity. Historical data shows that 1998, 2010, 2016, 2023, and 2024 were marked by record heat waves following strong El Niño events. China's forecasters warn that the country may face increased natural disasters in 2027, noting that previous super-strong El Niño events in 1997–98 and 2015–16 resulted in direct economic losses of 300.74 billion and 503.29 billion yuan respectively.
Why This Matters
Record-strength El Niño directly affects agricultural output, natural disaster frequency, and seasonal weather patterns across Asia, Latin America, and globally. Measurable impacts include: India's monsoon rainfall at 87.4% of normal (impacting rice/cereal yields); Indonesia's intensified wildfires affecting air quality in Singapore and Malaysia; Brazil's sugar and coffee production under drought threat; Japan facing warm winter with altered precipitation patterns December 2026–February 2027. Historical precedent shows strong El Niño events correlate with record heat waves and economic losses (China experienced 300.74 billion and 503.29 billion yuan in direct losses following 1997–98 and 2015–16 events). WMO forecasts October–December Pacific sea surface temperatures 3.7°C above normal.
Timeline & Sources
Jan 1, 2027
WireEl Niño gradually weakens; lagged effects on global temperatures and disasters expected to continue
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Sources
- 中国国家气候中心:9月已形成超强厄尔尼诺zaobaoMediaOct 9, 2026
- 日本测得有记录以来最强厄尔尼诺 中国料今冬初达峰值zaobaoMediaOct 9, 2026
- ఎల్నినో అతి తీవ్రం కాబోతోందా?EenaduMediaOct 10, 2026
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- エルニーニョが史上最強に 今後の天候にどう影響するのか?(松浦悠真) - エキスパートYahoo!ニュースMediaOct 10, 2026
- 世界各地に異常気象もたらす「エルニーニョ」過去最強に、日本は暖冬の見込み…気象庁「影響注視したい」読売新聞MediaOct 10, 2026