Moscow Exchange indices rise 0.5% as oil prices climb, rate decision looms

Russian stock markets opened Friday with modest gains on the Moscow Exchange, with both the MOEX and RTS indices rising approximately 0.46–0.5% by 9:00–9:05 a.m. Moscow time. MOEX reached 2,440.62–2,441.81 points while RTS climbed to 947.73–948.19 points, according to trading data from multiple sources.

Market movement was driven by three main factors. Oil prices strengthened significantly, with December Brent crude futures surpassing $114.50 per barrel—the highest level since May—on concerns about Middle East tensions and potential U.S. measures against Iran. Additionally, investors reacted to expectations of continued negotiations on Ukraine, following discussions between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. special envoy Steve Bannon on Wednesday. Putin stated Thursday that Russia remains ready to negotiate and resume trilateral talks with the United States and Ukraine to discuss security arrangements after a final peace agreement.

Market sentiment was tempered, however, by anticipation of the Central Bank's key interest rate decision expected later Friday. Analyst consensus forecasts the rate will remain at 14% annually, but uncertainty about the regulator's tone and forward guidance deterred some investors from aggressive buying. Strategists noted that the market had overestimated the probability of quick progress on the Ukraine negotiation track after recent optimism, leading some profit-taking after Thursday's mixed session in which the ruble-denominated MOEX fell 0.7% but the dollar-indexed RTS gained 0.3% on ruble strength.

Top performers included ALROSA (+1.5%), Inter RAO (+1.5%), Polus (+1.3%), and MMK (+1.1%), alongside gains in oil stocks such as Rosneft and Surgutneftegaz. FosAgro declined 0.7%. Analysts remained cautiously optimistic on the medium-term uptrend, characterizing the recent correction as technical consolidation within a 2,400–2,500-point range, with potential for volatility following the Central Bank announcement.