IEA warns gas market tightness will extend into 2027

The International Energy Agency has warned that tightness in the global natural gas market could persist well into 2027, as Europe faces historically low fuel inventories heading into winter. According to the IEA's latest report, EU gas storage levels have fallen to their lowest point since 2013, with storage filled to only 75% by the end of October—substantially below the EU's mandated minimum threshold of 80%.

The agency attributes the storage shortfall to multiple factors. The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, linked to Middle East tensions, disrupted liquefied natural gas imports to Europe during a period when inventories were already depleted after the previous winter. Additionally, buyers delayed gas purchases in hopes that prices would fall; those expectations did not materialise, leaving storage levels inadequate for the winter season.

Storage intake accelerated during the summer months of August, September, and October, but total gas pumped into EU storage during the 2026 filling season was approximately 4% below the five-year average. The IEA cautioned that Europe's increasing reliance on liquefied natural gas from global markets to meet peak seasonal demand creates vulnerability—particularly if the coming winter proves colder than expected or if technical failures or other supply disruptions occur. Germany's government stated on Monday that gas supplies for the country are secured for the next winter, despite storage levels remaining well below regulatory guidelines.