Houthis seize Yemen's Red Sea coast, threatening global shipping

Houthi forces captured significant territory along Yemen's Red Sea coast between September 3 and 11, 2026, in one of the largest battlefield shifts since a UN-brokered truce in April 2022. The offensive seized approximately 2,100 square miles, including the port cities of Mokha and Dhubab, and the island of Mayyun in the Bab al-Mandab Strait—a critical maritime chokepoint through which roughly 10 percent of global seaborne trade passes. The advance displaced over 100,000 people, many attempting dangerous sea crossings to Djibouti. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree attributed the offensive to years of Saudi-led coalition aggression and a naval blockade, citing a July 13 Saudi-backed strike on Sanaa airport that forced back an Iranian military aircraft as an immediate trigger.

The territorial gains mark a significant shift in Yemen's decade-long civil conflict. The Houthis, who control much of Yemen's northwest, have long faced a Saudi-led coalition supporting the internationally recognized government. Since 2022, fighting had largely stalemated. Analysts attribute the renewed offensive partly to fractured opposition forces—particularly following Saudi Arabia's 2025 withdrawal of support from the UAE, which had previously assisted anti-Houthi operations in southern Yemen. Military officials from both sides reported ongoing clashes around heights overlooking the strait, with neither side securing decisive advantage as of mid-September.

The capture raises alarm over shipping disruptions and regional power dynamics. Analysts note the offensive grants the Houthis leverage over a second critical maritime chokepoint at a moment when the Strait of Hormuz, already disrupted by Iran-US tensions, has become a primary concern for energy markets. Saudi Arabia had increased crude oil routing through Bab al-Mandab to roughly eight times prior-year levels following Iran's March 2026 closure of Hormuz. Yemeni security sources indicated a senior Iranian commander oversaw part of the September operation, though the extent of Iranian coordination remains contested. The Houthis have announced a naval blockade targeting Saudi vessels, though claims of broader closure remain unconfirmed.

Defense analysts highlight structural weaknesses in the anti-Houthi coalition's response. Yemen's Defense Minister Taher al-Aqili previously acknowledged that despite military consolidation efforts—including unified payroll and biometric systems following UAE withdrawal—the various government-aligned factions lack shared training and joint command structures. A detailed reconstruction of the Mokha battle revealed Houthi use of an AI-cloned commander's voice to spread false withdrawal orders via radio and SMS, contributing to coalition force collapse. This tactic exploited the absence of integrated communications among the five formations defending the coast.

The offensive carries broader regional implications. Pakistan's exports face potential disruption: textile shipments via the Red Sea route would face increased war-risk insurance, longer diversion times around Africa's Cape of Good Hope (adding 10–18 days), and higher fuel costs—potentially over $1 million per ship. Pakistan's already-strained textile exporters, competing with Bangladesh, Vietnam, and India, cited risks to European market access. Global oil supplies also face pressure: the closure of Bab al-Mandab to Saudi tankers has already affected fuel availability in oil-importing nations, while broader closure could raise shipping costs and redirect trade patterns. Analysts differ on whether the Houthi advance strengthens Iran's regional position or undermines Houthi domestic legitimacy amid the humanitarian toll and prolonged conflict on Yemeni civilians.