U.S. Republicans suffer historic midterm losses; Trump blamed as Europe watches closely

Democrats swept to victory in the U.S. midterm elections, taking control of Congress in a defeat Republicans attributed directly to President Donald Trump's policies and leadership. The scale of the Republican losses—including unexpected Democratic wins in traditional Republican strongholds like Texas, Kansas, and South Carolina—marked a sharp reversal from typical midterm dynamics, where the incumbent president's party usually gains seats or loses fewer.

Republican leaders attributed the defeat to several factors centered on Trump's record. Rising inflation, driven partly by fuel and energy prices, emerged as voters' primary concern, with 79% reporting it had caused severe or moderate hardship. The unpopular Iran war, launched jointly by the U.S. and Israel in February, significantly contributed to higher energy costs after Iran restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz; 63% of voters said the U.S. made the wrong decision, and 74% cited the conflict as crucial to their vote. Republican strategists and White House aides also cited Trump's low approval ratings, tariff policies, strict immigration enforcement, and focus on infrastructure projects in Washington as alienating voters. Bill Miller, a senior Republican lobbyist in Texas, told the BBC: "This is entirely his responsibility. This is a catastrophe at the highest level." Trump initially claimed he had not been "on the campaign trail," stating "if I had been, we would have won by a landslide," but later accepted the results.

Democrats secured victory partly through disciplined messaging on cost of living and healthcare. Candidates like James Talarico in Texas and Adam Hamilton in Kansas connected authentically with voters on these concerns and on faith. Annie Andrews' upset victory in South Carolina as a former pediatrician highlighted healthcare affordability as a winning issue.

The midterm results reverberate across Europe, where similar economic frustrations are reshaping politics ahead of scheduled elections in Spain, Italy, France, Greece, and Poland. European analysts warn that Trump's defeat illustrates the electoral peril facing any incumbent—whether right-wing populist or traditional—who promises economic relief but fails to deliver. France's Le Monde attributed Republican losses to Trump's tariffs reigniting inflation and his unpopular war. Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, already facing protests over fuel costs, faces potential vulnerability. Spain's far-right Vox party, campaigning against Socialist PM Pedro Sánchez's handling of affordability, is expected to gain seats in the November 29 election. Conversely, for opposition figures like France's Marine Le Pen, whose National Rally leads spring presidential polls, voter anger over cost of living and housing offers political opportunity; Le Pen has long centered her platform on affordability and is now capitalizing on public discontent.